LAS VEGAS – The stage was set in the desert. Two of the league’s brightest stars, A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier, clashed in a battle that many believed would shape the MVP race. Few expected it to swing as violently as it did.
Wilson dismantled the Minnesota Lynx with ruthless efficiency, pouring in 31 points on 11-of-15 shooting. She not only delivered on offense but also stamped her authority defensively, swatting away a Collier attempt in the first quarter that set the tone for the night. Collier, meanwhile, labored through a 12-point outing on 5-of-13 shooting, unable to find her rhythm against Wilson’s relentless presence.
The contrast could not have been more striking. Wilson’s first basket, a smooth turnaround jumper that left Collier stumbling to the floor, foreshadowed a long night for the Minnesota forward. Every possession seemed to tilt further toward Wilson, who used skill and force to pull the spotlight firmly in her direction.
Odds Flipped Overnight
Just days ago, Collier’s name was etched into the MVP conversation as the overwhelming betting favorite at -1200. Thursday night turned that narrative on its head. Following her struggles against Wilson, sportsbooks swung sharply in the opposite direction. By Friday morning, Wilson had surged to the front of the line, carrying odds of -120 at Caesars and -136 at FanDuel to claim what would be her record-setting fourth MVP.
The reversal was jarring, especially considering Collier had spent much of the summer as the frontrunner. Her ankle injury against the Aces in early August — during a 53-point blowout — appeared to mark the true turning point in this race.
Wilson’s Case for the Crown
At that point in August, Vegas sat at 14-14, their season teetering. Wilson herself had battled head and wrist injuries, and though her numbers impressed, victories were scarce. That lopsided loss, however, sparked something. Since then, the Aces have ripped off 13 consecutive wins, the longest streak in franchise history, vaulting into contention for the second seed in the postseason.
Minnesota weathered Collier’s absence admirably, going 5-2 while she healed. But since her return, the Lynx have stumbled, losing both contests in which she failed to eclipse 20 points. The team’s form has dimmed alongside her own uneven performances.
The MVP debate has always balanced between rewarding sheer statistical dominance and valuing the role of a player in a winning team. Personally, I often lean toward honoring the most statistically commanding season, independent of team results. By that measure, Collier’s candidacy remained strong heading into Thursday. She still held certain statistical advantages and had beaten Wilson head-to-head earlier in the year.
But Wilson’s eruption against the Lynx shifted the entire landscape. Not only did she seize the lead in the scoring title race with her 19-point margin over Collier, she also underlined what many already believed: she is both the most valuable player by impact and the player who has put together the best season.
